By Justice Iyasere
In every political contest, securing the support of the home front is a strategic inroad into the arena of political stability and strength. No politician worth its salt gamble with the strength of the home support. More often than not, most successful politicians work very hard to secure the support of their kinsmen, which in turn provides a solid base to argue for votes from outside a candidate’s home base. Home support is a serious factor in political relations and once that is lacking, it takes a greater deal of hard-work and understanding from the other areas for a rejected stone to make it. Where such understanding is lacking, it becomes difficult if not impossible for a candidate whose home base rejects to succeed.
As the race for who succeeds Dr Uduaghan as Governor of Delta state hot up, there had been serious undercurrent politicking all over Delta state. Delta north had initially built their hope on a non existing power-shift arrangement, a claim that was adequately repelled by the other senatorial district. As the power-shift music fizzles out into nothingness, those who believed in themselves and the place of a united Delta state where everybody has equal stake went to work, presenting strong argument on why they were the best for the job. As the political landscape wear the colour of unrelenting warfare between the gladiators, Dr Emmanuel Eweta Uduaghan dropped a bomb-shell to the effect that one Mr Tony Chuks Obuh was his choice for governor. He did not quite make a formal announcement to that effect. But the movements and utterances of his close allies, followers and beneficiaries suggested that Uduaghan may have truly made up his mind on the choice of his successor.
The development tilted the scale of political balance drastically in favour of Tony Obuh as many roving, bread and butter politicians, who were hitherto with different aspirants, dumped their erstwhile principals for the new-found political bride. The Obuh fever swept through the state like wild harmattan fire in dry season, pulling down many strongholds of political resistance. Many people who wanted to be in the good book of the ‘’in-coming governor’’ as many were wont to refer to him, erected bill boards for him at personal cost, branding vehicles, doling out good money and pretending about town to be his strongest supporters. The wind was so strong that a Governorship aspirant from Delta central, who was even shortlisted by the Urhobo Progress Union offered to be Deputy Governor to Obuh since, in his calculation, Obuh will make it since Uduaghan was believed to be behind him. But while this was going on, the real politicians who understand where the power-base lies were busy working on the relevant institutions for the best and final result.
Prior to the coming of the Obuh’s hurricane, the Asagba of Asaba and the leadership of the Anioma nation, comprising of Traditional rulers, political war-lords, top business men, technocrats and men and women of great means from the northern district had set up a committee to streamline the number of aspirants from Delta north. The committee had been at work and the real politicians, who knew the importance of endorsement from the home front, had worn their daggers at the appropriate area for maximum effect. While Tony Obuh was celebrating a purported endorsement from Governor Uduaghan who is from Delta south senatorial district, the north political class particularly those with enough field experience were working hard on the committee. A similar work was also on-going in the Delta central district. The Urhobo nation through the Urhobo Progress Union also worked hard to streamline aspirants from the area.
Last week, information hit the news-mill to the effect that three names had been shortlisted and forwarded to Mr President and the PDP national headquarters as the best materials from the Delta north district. Governor Uduaghan, who got winds of the recommendation before the list was presented to President Jonathan, visited the Asagba of Asaba to prevail on him for Tony Obuh to be accommodated. The Asagba, we learnt, rebuffed entreaties from the governor. Governor Uduaghan, who knew the importance of endorsement from an entire senatorial district, left Asaba totally frustrated. That move by the governor also put paid to speculations hitherto in the air that Uduaghan had nothing to do with Tony Obuh. Visiting the Asagba to ensure Tony Obuh make the list of preferred aspirants from Delta north strongly indicates that all the denials about knowing nothing concerning the alleged Obuh endorsement were mere politics. The three names forwarded by Delta north are Senator Ifeanyi Okowa, Hon Victor Ochei and Hon Ndudi Elumelu, while from the Urhobo nation, Obaisi Ovie Omo-Agege, Chief Paulinius Akpeki and Olorogun David Edevbie, are said to be favoured by the Urhobo nation.
The concern of this writer is what happens to the Obuh’s team now that Anioma has rejected him? Will he fight back drawing from Uduaghan’s support to defile the position of his Anioma leaders? Will the Anioma people work for an Obuh who was rejected by their leaders? Will the PDP headquarters give serious attention to the Obuh factor considering the fact that he has been rejected by his people? Will Delta central and south now provide a base for Obuh to actualise his ambition? The last question is germane to this argument because, the only example of when a man was rejected by his home base only for him to win the election was the case of Olusegun Obasanjo, whose south west voted for Olu Falae in 1999 against Obasanjo. That exceptional case worked for Obasanjo simply because he was a product of the northern political cabal. The north made Obasanjo and worked hard for his victory even though his south west did not want him. In the Obuh case, can he boast of solid support from Delta central and north?
There is a moral dimension to the question of endorsement. Whether you like it or not, Tony Chuks Obuh has been dealt a devastating blow, a near mortal blow by this development. Wherever he goes for campaigns outside the north district, it could be asked without fear or favour that having be rejected by his home, who will stake his honour for him again outside Delta north? Even in Delta north, many experienced politicians would deal with him diplomatically because, his not making the list is like removing two tyres of a tricycle. Obuh may now be limping with one leg in the field. Uduaghan too, may not be too forceful in pushing him through because, this Obuh could mess his political career up. If Obuh decides to fight on and eventually gets the ticket through Uduaghan, that is if Uduaghan decides to swim and sink with him, it would be a strong campaign weapon against him that he was earlier rejected and cannot be voted at the general poll. It would be too much of a gamble by Udughan.
The opinion of this writer is that now that Tony Obuh has been rejected by his Anioma people, he should quietly close shop and ally with whoever would be the PDP flag-bearer in due course. PDP is shopping for popular candidates who can win elections with little support from the central. A man who cannot scale through a committee of his Senatorial District is not likely going to make it in the general poll. That is the thinking of the PDP. The party is not ready to foist an unpopular candidate in the people because, just like Omisore was floored in Osun State, Obuh will be an easy fly to kill by the opposition should PDP dares the resolve of the people to still go ahead to field him. Obuh is out of the race because, nothing is hidden under the sun. The list is everywhere now and PDP will restrict consideration to the three names on the list. Delta central parades an experienced Obaisi Ovie Omo-Agege who cannot be intimidated by a man who has, hitherto, not faced the fire in the political arena. The shopping list is getting slimmer. Urhobo chances is getting brighter. To this writer, Obuh should play calm and be considered for appointment in the future.
