Fred Latimore Oghenesivbe
The time is ripe and Nigerians are taking stock, weighing various options and engaged in socio-economic and political permutations. The opposition is strategizing and re-strategizing, accessing their impact in the polity and adjusting to see how more damage can be done to the Jonathan’s administration so as to win the hearts of teaming Nigerian voters in the next presidential elections. Many more actions and inactions are expected between now and February 2015. All of this put together will generate the question: Can President Jonathan make it in 2015?
To arrive at a “yes” or a probability, will be to x-ray some past and present political developments and then forecast what is likely to be the future politically. The political propaganda championed by the leadership of the House of Representatives is worth considering in the light of the subject matter. Nigerians are likely not going to be swayed by the series of attacks on President Jonathan’s administration because of some vital reasons. The reason being that the speaker of the House, Barrister Aminu Tambuwal, is somewhat engaged in what I call “political fraud”. Fraud in the sense that all available evidence has shown that even though he is yet to publicly announce his defection from the Peoples’ Democratic Party (PDP) his actions, body-language and radical political comments against the Jonathan’s administration have morally, physically and politically portrayed him as someone who have actually defected. Speaker Tambuwal, according to some political observers, has deliberately avoided all PDP events and federal government functions to drive home his point that his romance with the PDP administration was over. To this effect, the systematic political divorce has given him the opportunity to criticize the very government and party that made him the Speaker of the House of Representatives.
The political fraud in Speaker Tambuwal’s conduct is more glaring when the Alhaji Baraje faction of the PDP visited the House. During that scenario, the video clips clearly revealed where Speaker Tambuwal belonged politically as was corroborated by Chief Bode George’s recent interview with one of the national dailies. In that political scheming, the speaker was smiling and having a good time, thinking that the end of the PDP had come but alas the events that followed shocked him, when the court declared that there was no division in the PDP and again when the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) refused to register the New PDP because of its similarity in name with the ruling party. It has also been rumoured that the defection of the thirty seven PDP law makers in the House was hatched and perfected by Mr. Speaker so as to enable the opposition political party, the All Progressive Congress (APC) to control the leadership of the House. Though this allegation is yet to be substantiated, the conduct of Honourable Gbajabiamila, referring to Honourable Leo Ogor as the Deputy Minority Leader of the House, was a major pointer to the fact that the Speaker’s APC inner-temple members were already convinced that change in the leadership of the House had occurred even when it was yet to be so. The events that followed through the legal process came as a rude-shock to the APC strategic team in the House hence an appeal is anticipated as announced by Hon. Osagie on behalf of the affected lawmakers. The subject matter is Section 68 (1)(g) of the constitution which forbids a Senator or an elected member of the House sponsored by a political party to defect when the tenure of the House is yet to expire. The appellate courts will do justice to the matter in the process of time.
The question political scholars and analysts are asking is that: Why has Speaker Tambuwal not defected or resign his position since he was no longer an active member of the PDP? Why is he pretending to be a member of a party that he had abandoned more than three years ago? Perhaps the answer to that is that the Speaker wants to use his position to cause some sort of political damage to reputation of the ruling PDP so as to give him more bargaining power in the opposition political party. Yes, it was rumoured that the Speaker is also routing for the presidential ticket of the APC while Governors Amaechi and Rochas Okorocha are lobbying to pick-up the Vice-Presidential ticket of the same party. In all of these, Nigerians are already aware that the roles of Speaker Tambuwal, the defection of Governor Amaechi from PDP, Gov Okorocha from APGA, defection of thirty seven PDP lawmakers and some other Northern Governors are selfish and self-serving reasons aimed at moving up to the next level in the political ladder and not necessarily for the good of supporters in their respective states or constituencies. With this, Nigerians may not be moved by the political rascality and unreasonable attacks persistently targeted at the Jonathan’s administration.
Some political actors in Imo State and in some parts of the South-East have expressed their disappointment over the betrayal exhibited by Governor Rochas Okoracha. They are of the opinion that it was unreasonable and painful for the Governor to decamp from the very party that gave him the ticket barely two years in office. They say the Governor was able to easily defect because the Ikemba, Chief Odimegu Ojukwu is no more and that if he was living, hail and hearty his excellency would not have had the political impetus to dump the party that upgraded his political credentials from a mere politician without portfolio to a state governor. This bitterness if anything to go by is likely to mess up the chances of the APC winning the next gubernatorial elections in Imo State.
The Ibos showed this trait in the last Anambra gubernatorial elections when they disowned Senator Chris Ngege because of his party affiliations with the APC instead of PDP or APGA. Furthermore, the return of Senator Ararume and other big political heavyweights to PDP in Imo State has added success possibility for the ruling party to have landslide victory in the State during the next elections. It is strongly believed that PDP will regain Rivers State which was sold or given to APC in a platter of gold by the incumbent Governor. The crack created in the minds of the Ibo ethnic nationality that saw the defection of Gov Okorocha as an unusual political betrayal is likely to fracture the relevance of the governor and the APC during the forthcoming general elections. It is rumoured that if the Vice presidential ticket is given to Amaechi or Okorocha, the South West will revolt politically for the fact that they would have been relegated to the background in the scheme of things within the APC as presently constituted. It would mean that Asiwaju Bola Tinubu sold the South West in a platter of gold whether or not the APC wins the presidential election in 2015.
In Rivers State, Govenor Amaechi’s volume of accusation which he continue to heap at the door step of PDP and President Jonathan is no longer attracting headlines and front line news, compared to three months ago. Some of his media mention at the moment are largely paid for as commercial news and therefore, it will be safe to assert that the Rivers State Government pays for virtually everything he says and aired in nearly all the electronic media. Some of his political comments have started to confuse Nigerians the more. Recently, he said some Oil wells belonging to Rivers State have been re-allocated to Bayelsa and Akwa Ibom States and urged his supporters not to vote for PDP in the coming elections, if the state must continue to experience development. Available information has it that the Rivers State people are not willing to be in conflict or opposition to the federal government especially now that their brother and son-in-law is he President of Nigeria. I think the best thing for the Governor to do is to take proper legal measures or any other procedure allowed within the oil and gas legal instruments to seek redress in a court of competent jurisdiction than to blow empty trumpet. The utterances of Gov. Amaechi no longer make reasonable impact in terms of winning votes for the APC in Rivers State. I admonish the leadership of the party to do a popularity survey and will find out that PDP is in firm control. The kind of crowd or pedigree of personalities that gathered as shown on the video clips when the state organized a dinner party for Chief Obasanjo at the government house recently in Port Harcourt revealed that all is not well as projected by the governor.
In the Northern part of the country, it is a political truism that the tussle for relevance between the PDP and APC is highly fragmented. Evidence abounds as to division between some governors and their deputies. As it is today, some Governors belong to the Progressive Governors Forum of the APC while their deputies are members of the PDP Governors Forum. This is not a good one for the APC because at the polls the votes will be fragmented and shared between the two parties and what remains to be seen is which party will carry the day. The Boko Haram insurgence is a national issue but the various comments and pronouncements emanating from top leaders and chieftains of the APC lack spirit of patriotism. One of the Governors of APC once said that the Boko Haram group is well motivated and had superior weapons than the Nigerian Armed Forces. Nigerians have perceived these utterances as not good enough because they expected the opposition party to totally condemn the acts of terrorism that has claimed thousands of innocent people including women, children and unborn babies in their mothers’ wombs. For this reason, Nigerians are to a large extent confused as to the kind of political philosophy the APC has adopted and are lost as to whether the opposition party has the moral and political integrity to be trusted with the affairs of this nation at this critical time of our quest for a more united Nigeria.
In recent times, prominent northern leaders have paid courtesy visit on Mr. President and to the national secretariat of the Goodluck Support Group to pledge their continuous support for the Jonathan’s administration. The huge crowd that have consistently welcomed Mr. President during PDP consolidation rallies in Zones and States already visited points to the fact that the ruling party is still very strong and cannot be under-rated by the APC in the forthcoming general elections. The only thing that has hit up the polity is the various APC political propaganda, raising issues that boarders on corruption, some of which were made through the suspended Central Bank Governor, Sanusi Lamido Sanusi. The Kano Prince CBN governor whom the APC described as a “patriotic whistle blower” is also facing financial panel for reckless appropriation of funds and for awarding contracts and consultancy jobs worth several billions of Naira to selected individuals and firms including some chieftains of the APC, et al. Before his suspension, political analyst had classified the Governor as a “glorified politician or motivational speaker” who spent more time with opposition Politicians and Journalists than focusing on his sensitive job as Governor of the CBN. He became more of a celebrated politician than a public servant who is paid with tax payers’ money.
To answer the hypothetical question whether or not President Jonathan can be stopped in 2015 presidential elections, the eligible Nigerian voters will decide in February 2015, but this writer and some other political observers strongly believe that the opposition party has not done much in terms of political engineering to create fear or panic for the PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan. The way things are, Mr. President and his team has systematically and maturely dislodged all the petty fraudulent accusations put forward by the opposition. To worsen their case and credibility, the opposition APC recently published a manipulated public opinion poll wherein it claimed that Nigerians interviewed across the country wants its party to take over affairs of governance in Nigeria come 2015. The poll results were greeted by heavy outcry and condemnation by Nigerians, civil society groups and the political class across the country. One of the groups described the claim as the highest political fraud in the history of Nigerian politics since the nation got independence from Britain.
The ongoing APC ward congress nation-wide has finally nailed the party and the picture painted is that of an opposition which lacked internal democracy to wrestle power from a party that has mastered the game of politics much better due to its control of the polity from 1999 till the present day. Another political saga which analysts predict would blow the APC into political oblivion is the struggle for presidential ticket between Alhaji Atiku Abubakar, Speaker Aminu Tambuwal and General Buhari on the one hand and Gov. Rochas Okorocha and Gov. Amaechi for Vice presidential ticket on the other hand. Political observers have also said that it is worthless painting the PDP government as being corrupt when available evidence has shown that top leaders of the APC have become automatic billionaires through political gaming and pitching of state treasuries. Not to long ago, Pastor Tunde Bakare who was Vice-Presidential candidate to General Buhari in the last election disclosed in an interview granted some news hunters that, some APC Governors in the South West are already richer than their States. There are leaders of the APC who own several five stars hotels and prime properties across the country and overseas. Some others are media moguls with huge investments in print and electronic media while some own Airlines and Ships in high-seas, et al. It is believed that these businessmen cum political heavyweights schemed huge funds from the system and government coffers through the back door which they now use to oppress the poor by buying off properties from not-well-to-do families using the instrumentality of the state governments in some of the APC controlled states.
The actions and inactions of Speaker Tambuwal who has bluntly refused to announce his defection from the ruling PDP so as to enable him “back-stab” the party in the House is very unpatriotic and a political fraud masterminded to deceive Nigerians. It is my conclusion that the opposition party has not done enough to warrant their victory in 2015 and if care is not taking, some of the APC States will certainly be won by PDP in the forthcoming general elections. It is strongly believed among political observers that Imo, Ondo, Ekiti, Adamawa, Nasarawa, Edo, and Osun States may spin acrobatic surprises in the next gubernatorial elections in total favour of PDP. APC should count their losses, because the more alarm raised the more defection that has occurred from APC to PDP which is to say that its time to change the game plan or suffer serious casualty in 2015. It is a truism that the political actions of the opposition party are more in favour of the PDP than the APC itself.
What else can I say? That President Jonathan is unstoppable? Yes, he is unstoppable in 2015.
